Uncertainty over tariffs dampens optimism among cereal producers despite good harvest prospects

Anna Berga/Mollerussa - The imposition of tariffs by the Donald Trump administration and the countermeasures that the European Union is preparing in response have generated a climate of uncertainty in the markets, including those for cereals. This situation represents a "handicap" for cereal producers in the West and also dampens their spirits despite optimism over the good harvest prospects expected for this year, which come after three disastrous years for the sector marked by drought. As for fodder, the sector is confident of a gradual recovery after a few years, also bad. The possible effects of a trade war have marked a large part of the Cereals and Forages Conference organized by JARC, a technical and informative meeting aimed at producers.

Regarding harvest prospects, the cereal sector is experiencing a "magnificent situation", said the head of the Cereals and Forages sector at JARC, Vicenç Pascual. This optimism, however, contrasts with the uncertainty in the market due to Trump's trade policies and the situation in Ukraine. "Today, no one knows at what price it will be sold and it is a very big handicap", he indicated.

The JARC conference, which was held in Mollerussa, addressed the impact that the announcement this Wednesday by the European Union to impose tariffs against the United States in response to the 25% that the Trump administration has begun to apply to steel and aluminum exports may have.

The specialist in agri-food markets and director of the consultancy AESTIVUM, Mercedes Ruiz, has predicted an increase in the price of corn that would fully affect the European economy. In part, this is because European countries have had to turn to US corn this year due to the poor harvest in Ukraine, which is the main exporter of this cereal in Europe.

Ruiz explained that this campaign the Spanish state has already imported around 1.2 million tonnes of corn from the United States and estimates that this figure will increase until the new harvest arrives in other exporting countries such as Brazil or Ukraine. She added that the tariffs imposed by the EU will increase the price of corn by more than 50 euros per tonne.

The speaker also noted that Spain needs to import corn and other cereals from third countries, since its domestic production is not enough to meet demand. "In Spain we import half of the cereal we need and last year, with the drought, we imported two-thirds of it." This represents about 15.9 million tons of imported cereals in the last campaign, which are added to the domestic harvest of about 21.5 million tons. All of this, to cover a demand that is close to 40 million tons of cereals.

The Cereals and Forages Conference is a meeting that JARC organizes every two years and whose objective is to inform producers with the help of experts about the situation that the sector is experiencing. "It serves so that producers have first-hand information and can make decisions on their farms," ??explained Pascual. The previous conference was held just when the war broke out in Ukraine and was not held last year due to the drought.